Patched Tube

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About Patched Tube

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  • Birthday 06/07/1962

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  • Location Washington, DC
  • Gender Male
  • Springsteen fan since? Vicky played me "Born to Run"
  • Does Mary's dress wave or sway? A question for the philosophers
  • Sex? mainly solo

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  1. US Presidential Race Potpourri Thread

    I've begun to formulate a hypothesis that evangelicals in today's GOP are a bit like unions were for the Democrats in the 70s: a powerful force capable of mustering bodies and money - but on the downward side of their influence.  A test of this hypothesis might be a Cruz - Trump showdown.  Now it's probably going to be a somewhat crowded field come Super Tuesday which dilutes the value of the experiment and it's always possible (though unlikely) that one or both may implode before then. In any event Trump goes into South Carolina with a nice lead in the polls.  My view that this is essentially a two man race between Trump and Cruz at this point was, if anything, reenforced last evening (The long awaited "deflation" of a candidate happening to Rubio instead of Trump).  So where does that leave Trump?  Let's say he wins in SC - after that the calendar gets really crowded, retail politics becomes useless and the value of media gets increased.   An interesting piece here says "advantage Trump".  It's reasonably well argued and the author is a pretty smart cookie with a good track record.  I know I said a day or so my thought was/is Cruz takes it.  But... I also hedged and said that was tentative.  The piece by Yeglseis would be a bit discomfiting if I had money on my "bet".  
  2. US Presidential Race Potpourri Thread

    Well he'd have to show up at work first.
  3. US Presidential Race Potpourri Thread

    I think a lot of his comes down to who runs against whom: fear is a great motivator.  For all that people worry that Trump or Clinton or anybody else won't be able to get the vote out I've heard this song before; in the end, faced with a choice, voters tend, in predictable patterns, to hold their noses and make that choice.   Thats not to say some voters don't show up if their candidate doesn't get nominated.  I merely suggest that 1) this is true of both sides and 2) it's an overblown concern.  
  4. Rio Olympics 2016

    To be blunt... who said life is fair?  This isnt a case where a social or government change can balance the scales; it is what it is.  It's the (rough) equivalent of a male athlete complaining women down have to worry about testicular cancer.   Everybody involved has plenty of time to consulte with their physician, partner, coach, etc. and think about it.  Fortunately science provides an potential solution with a high probability of resolving the pregnancy dilemma. Additionally it also provides a pretty accurate test to determine the risk before they go.  In essence... get on birth control now and adjust your, ahem, personal life IAW with the temporal parameters of pregnancy tests.  Or don't and don't go to Rio. I understand that's an unfortunate burden.  However athletes must make great sacrifices in all areas of their lives: it's simply part of the deal.  And athletes are used to manipulating their bodies and adjusting the rest of their lives around that aspect of their identity.  It's a three week event and not the rest of an athletes life.  The resources are available for an informed decision and a proactive strategy.  In my view the only rational choice is to utilize those resources.
  5. US Presidential Race Potpourri Thread

    The interesting thing will be to watch Sanders try and expand his appeal in the coming weeks;. You would be hard pressed to find more favorable ground for him than Iowa and NH.  If for example Maryland had gone first or second things might look a bit different.  Call Iowa a tie and give Sanders the win in NH.  Now it gets tougher.  OTOH it can be argued that HRC is now in "must win" territory and is one gaff or serious error from going down in flames. FiveThirtyEight takes a look at the good and the bad for both candidates:      
  6. US Presidential Race Potpourri Thread

    He could win the nomination.  In fact he's probably in a crude, static look at the numbers he's probably the favorite.  However the odds are probably such that while he has the best chance at this moment the probability is he will not.  Can win the election?  Well yeah... but it's unlikely.  But it's possible. There will be no extralegal "intervention".  Zero chance.  It is, however, possible that in the event Trump wins the nomination the GOP establishment will abandon him and move to limit their losses "down ticket" and even possibly semi-actively campaign against him with off the record commentary and the use of surrogates.   Trump hasn't been funny to most Americans for months now and no where is that more true than amongst the Republican Party leadership.  While I'll concede that many of us find his unlikely rise fascinating it certainly isn't a laughing matter any more.  
  7. US Presidential Race Potpourri Thread

    The problem with that is how do you convince Bush to get out and give Kasich and Rubio the nod?  The problem is Kasich is moderate of temperament, substantitive and serious... he's this cycles Huntsman with all that implies.  Rubio is badly wounded - Christie's suicide bombing exposed every doubt anybody had about "Roboto" (I didn't help he essentially repeated his debate error during a stump speech).  I don't see how he wins or even comes in second in South Carolina.  As I wrote several weeks ago "where does he win"?  Had he come in second, perhaps even third he'd have a gamblers chance and an argument - but how does he sell his candidacy to donors, the party and the voters after the events of the past several days?   You are correct in the sense Bush probably should get out: he's a deeply flawed candidate and the only way he wins is if Trump implodes and everybody besides Cruz gets out (and this happens soon) - but 1) I don't see that happening and 2) did ages are always the last to know they are "dead man walking".  Besides... he still has a crap ton of money.   As of this morning, in my view, with the "establishment lane" now clogged by a spectacular multi car pile up, this race is between Trump and Cruz. As a minor side item as he sits at home Walker must be kicking himself: all he had to do was not crash and burn and this could have been any bodies race.    
  8. US Presidential Race Potpourri Thread

    Well he looks like he will make it past 10% and he might, with a little luck, grab a fourth place win but tonight trashes his "3-2-1" strategy/pitch.  
  9. US Presidential Race Potpourri Thread

    Online source, might be a bit old.   It's early yet in any event.
  10. US Presidential Race Potpourri Thread

    Hmmm... Rubio is having a tough night.  Falling below the critical 10% threshold and into 5th place.  
  11. US Presidential Race Potpourri Thread

    Well as I said my "pick" is tentative - my confidence level is pretty low.  I could almost just as easily go with Rubio and it's not out of the question Trump gets the nod.  Of the remaining candidates... I just can't see how it can be done.  
  12. US Presidential Race Potpourri Thread

    I don't think so either (I have very tentatively settled on Cruz as the likely GOP nominee - and no I'm not putting money on it!) but it's conceivable he could be.  Hell in this cycle nothing would suprise me; you could make a plausible, if mercifully unlikely, case for Sanders vs Trump.    
  13. US Presidential Race Potpourri Thread

    Not entirely sure how much weight to give this but it would explain a few things.  Doesn't exactly fill me with confidence: this is the kind of assesment that might well lead various foreign leaders and groups to test him early. "Though generally seen as cool-headed and quick on his feet, Rubio is known to friends, allies, and advisers for a kind of incurable anxiousness — and an occasional propensity to panic in moments of crisis, both real and imagined."    
  14. The Superbowl

    Ugly game.  I like a good old school defensive grinder but... I don't like boat loads of stupid mistakes.  I lost count of how many dumb, just really DUMB, penalties I saw.  That second challenge by Rivera?  Over seven yards? It might not have mattered but it could have.  Decision to punt at the end of the game?  Fourth and 24 is long odds but you punt and it's game over.  Some really idiotic personal fouls as well - three I can think of right off the bat. The Super Bowl is one of those obligatory secular rights you more or less can't avoid - even if you know going in you are going to regret watching.  The whole thing is just so overblown.  It's odds on its going to be a ugly game and thanks to 236 commercial time outs and an interminable half time show it takes for ever.  Cold Play?  WTF?  You couldn't find a high school garage cover band willing to take the gig?  And the commercials sucked.  When the highlight is sheep lip syncing Freddy Mercurt to pitch what is perhaps the dumbest automotive idea of the decade you KNOW they sucked. Dear Payton Manning: Please, for the love of the game retire.  Today.  You were a lawn bag full of dead leaves with a brain out there.  It wasn't noble or a scene of pathos to watch you - it was just painful.   On a brighter side Denver's defense is just terrifying.  So fast and so physical.  I'd have them all in for drug screening - somebody must have been putting "greenies" in their water bottles.  They just never seem to get tired.  I e seen them twice now and they as fast in the fourth quarter as they are in the first.  Easily right up there with the 85 Bears.  Von Miller gonna get paid.